After a terrifying week on the markets with Dow Jones Industrial dropping nearly 1,400 points – investors are still arguing whether the selloff is a fundamental shift in the stock market or just a brief correction.
This week, corporate earnings are announced and with the recent drop in the markets and increasing interest rates – investors are bracing themselves for more potential drama.
Higher yields raise borrowing costs for corporations and lure investors away from perceived riskier asset such as stocks.
Geopolitical tensions were another worry for investors, starting with Saudi Arabia, which is locked in a diplomatic conflict with the U.S. On Sunday, President Donald Trump threatened “severe punishment” for the Saudis if any connection was found between the kingdom and a missing dissident journalist. The country responded with an immediate threat to retaliate, sparking a rally for oil prices – a rally that ended Wednesday when oil prices hit a month-low.
According to Thomas Martin, Senior Portfolio Manager with GLOBALT Investments, the same factors that triggered February´s stock market correction, triggered the recent correction. That being fear over rising rates, inflation and a shift from growth to value stocks, “ We are now in a phase were markets are digesting these new levels and if earnings continue to rise, another high rise could come in the near future”.
Seen as a major driver for stocks in the coming week, third-quarter earnings season gets underway in earnest this week, with Goldman Sachs Group Inc. among the big bank names reporting, while streaming video group Netflix Inc. will also be a highlight.
On Tuesday morning, Goldman Sachs beat profit forecasts by 17% and Morgan Stanley beat by 15%, helped by investment-banking and wealth-management revenue gains. The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 547.87 points, for its fourth-largest point gain ever.
Since 1928, the S&P 500 has logged a 5% decline approximately every 2 months and a 10% drop every 10 months.
Corporate profits for the S&P 500 are expected to rise 21% this year and 10% in 2019 according to CFRA Research, though the index is only up by 1,7% this year.